USD/CHF Likely to Remain Bullish Amid Forecast of Improving Durable Goods Orders in the US
Last Updated on December 20, 2021
Switzerland – Trade Balance
On Tuesday, at GMT 7:00 a.m., the Swiss Federal Statistical Office will release the monthly trade balance figure. It measures the difference in value between net import and export of goods over the past month.
The demand for export is directly correlated with the demand for the Swiss Franc. So, CFD traders analyze the monthly trade balance in order to gauge the strength of the CHF against other major currencies.
Last month, the Swiss trade balance figure came out at 5.65 billion. The forecast for this month is currently set at 4.38 billion.
United States – Durable Goods Orders
On Thursday, at GMT 1:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the month-over-month durable goods orders figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all new purchase orders made to the US manufacturers for durable goods over the past month.
Forex traders consider the US durable goods orders to be the primary gauge of the production situation in the economy. It is because an increase in purchase orders indicates that US manufacturing activity and growth will happen in the near future.
Last month, the US durable goods orders decreased by -0.4%. Analysts are expecting it to increase by 1.5% this month.
The USD/CHF remained bullish since the beginning of June 2021. Over the last several months, it moved up within an upward sloping channel by around 5% or 440 pips. However, on November 2, the USD/CHF found strong resistance for the second time near the 0.9370 level and formed a double top pattern. Consequently, it fell down sharply in the first week of November. Over the last several weeks, the USD/CHF remained mostly range-bound. Currently, it is trading near the medium-term pivot zone around the 0.9235 level.
The Swiss trade balance will likely come down from 5.65 billion to 4.38 billion. By contrast, analysts are expecting the US durable goods orders to increase by 1.5%. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the USD/CHF this week. Therefore, if the USD/CHF remains above the pivot zone near 0.92350, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.
Hence, CFD traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major pivot zone around 0.9235.
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