AUD/USD Likely Turn Bearish if Australian GDP Growth Slowed Down in Q4 2020

Last Updated on March 2, 2021

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 2nd March 2021

United States – Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI

On Monday, at GMT 3:00 p.m., the Institute for Supply Management released its manufacturing PMI figure for the United States. ISM’s US manufacturing PMI measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 400 purchasing managers.

Purchasing managers in the United States are involved in the supply side of the economy. As most companies reduce their expenses and production based on their sales forecast, the survey of purchasing managers reveals the overall optimism of various companies in the country. Hence, Top Forex brokers in Australia can easily figure out the sentiment regarding the economic condition in the country from the ISM manufacturing PMI readings.

Last month, the ISM manufacturing PMI for the United States came out at 58.7. The forecast for this month was set at 58.7 as well. However, the actual figure came out much better than expected, at 60.8.

Australia – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter GDP. It measures the changes in the inflation-adjusted value of all products and service made in the country over the past quarter.

The GDP measures the overall productivity in the economy. It acts as a leading indicator of the economic growth in the country. Hence, CFD traders consider Australia’s GDP (q/q) to be an important indicator of the health of the economy.

Last quarter, Australian GDP came out at 3.3% growth, This quarter, analysts are expecting it to grow by 2.5%.

AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD 1 Day Chart - 2nd March 2021

Since the start of November 2020, the AUD/USD remained bullish. Over the last several months, it formed a well-respected uptrend line. Last week, the 10-year US bonds hit a new high near 1.5%. Consequently, the AUD/USD turned bearish. On Friday, it tested the uptrend line around the pivot zone near 0.7700. Currently, it is trading just above this major pivot zone.

The Australian quarterly GDP would likely grow at a much slower pace compared to the last quarter. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States increased to 60.8. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the AUDUSD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes below the support near 0.7700, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, CFD traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 0.7700.

Market Analyst / Trading Consultant at Asif Imtiaz
Market Analyst / Trading Consultant . Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com
Asif Imtiaz

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