GBP/AUD Signals Bearishness Amid Surging Housing Market in Australia

Last Updated on March 19, 2021

GBP/AUD Forecast – 18th March 2021

Australia – House Price Index

On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the House Price Index (HPI). It measures the changes in the selling price of houses in the 8 state capitals in Australia.

Rising house prices indicate that investors are confident about purchasing houses. Hence, UK forex investors consider the HPI to be a leading indicator of investor confidence in the country. The HPI is usually released every three months in a quarter-over-quarter format.

Last month, the Australian HPI suggested that house prices in Australia’s 8 state capitals increased by 0.8%. The forecast for this month was that it would increase by 1.9%. However, the actual figure came out much better than expected, at 3.0%.

United Kingdom – Public Sector Net Borrowing

On Friday, at GMT 7:00 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release the public sector borrowing figure. It measures the difference in the value of the spending and income of the public corporations as well as the central government of the UK and other local governments during the last month.

A positive public sector borrowing figure would indicate a budget deficit and a negative figure would indicate a budget surplus. Hence, Forex traders consider a negative figure to be bullish news for the British Pound and vice-versa.

Last month, the UK public sector borrowing figure came out at 8.0 billion. The forecast for this month is set at 20.0 billion.

GBP/AUD Forecast

GBP/AUD Chart (trading view) - 16th March 2021

The GBP/AUD broke above the downtrend line on January 22, 2021. Over the last several weeks, it mostly remained range-bound. During this time, it traded between 1.7750 and 1.8110 levels. Yesterday, the GBP/AUD formed a bearish outside bar with a low of 1.7866. Currently, it is trading just above yesterday’s low.

The Australian House Price Index unexpectedly increased by 3.0%. By contrast, analysts are expecting the UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing to increase by 20.0 billion. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the GBP/AUD this week. Therefore, if the GBP/AUD penetrates below the support near 1.7866, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, CFD traders should look out for trading opportunities below this support level around 1.7866.

Market Analyst / Trading Consultant at Asif Imtiaz
Market Analyst / Trading Consultant . Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com
Asif Imtiaz

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