GBP/USD Eyes Key Resistance As Unemployment Claims in the UK Sharply Declines

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: 14th October 2020

United Kingdom – Claimant Count Change

On Tuesday, at GMT 7:00 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics released the Claimant Count Change figure. It measures the changes in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

It is the first fundamental indicator of the month that confirms the employment situation in the UK. so, forex brokers in the United Kingdom consider this to be an important indicator of consumer spending in the coming months. This is because consumer spending is highly dependent on labour market situation in the country.

Last month, the UK’s Claimant Count Change figure came out at 39,500. The forecast for this month was set at 78,800. The actual figure came out much lower, at 28,100.

United States – Retail Sales

On Friday, at GMT 1:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by Forex investors to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. Because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more. 

In September, the US retail sales value increased by 0.6%. Analysts are expecting it to grow by 0.7% over the last month.

GBP/USD Forecast

GBP/USD Chart - 14th October 2020

The GBP/USD stayed bullish since March 2020 and formed a well-respected uptrend line. But on September 10, it broke below the uptrend line. However, the support near 1.2665 level kept GBP/USD from falling. On September 28, it broke above the downtrend line but soon found resistance near the 1.3015 level. Currently, it is trading just below the resistance around 1.3015.

The US retail sales will likely grow at a steady rate over the last month. On the other hand, the UK’s Claimant Count Change figure came out way better than the consensus estimates. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the GBP/USD this week. Therefore, if the GBP/USD closes above 

the resistance near 1.3015, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, online forex investors should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 1.3015.

Market Analyst / Trading Consultant at Asif Imtiaz
Market Analyst / Trading Consultant . Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at [email protected]
Asif Imtiaz

Relevant news