GBP/USD Bulls Likely Test the Multi-Week Downtrend Line Amid Forecast of Declining US Retail Sales

Asif Imtiaz
October 11, 2021

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United Kingdom – Unemployment Rate

On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release the national unemployment rate. It measures the percentage of the total workforce which remained unemployed over the past month.

Forex traders consider the unemployment rate to be one of the most important fundamental indicators of the UK’s economy. It is because one of the main goals of the Bank of England is to keep unemployment as low as possible. This is a lagging indicator. But, analyzing this data can help Forex traders predict future interest rates. Also, it can help forecast the inflation situation in the country.

Last month, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom came out at 4.6%. This month, analysts are expecting it to come down to 4.5%.

United States – Retail Sales

On Friday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by CFD traders to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the US retail sales value increased by 0.7%. Analysts are expecting it to decline by -0.3%.

GBP/USD Forecast

Since June 1, 2021, the GBP/USD remained bearish. Over the last several months, the GBP/USD price fell by around 835 pips or 5.85%. Since the beginning of June, the GBP/USD also formed a well-respected downtrend line. On September 29, the GBP/USD fell to 1.3412 then started a bullish retracement toward the downtrend line. Earlier today, it tested the resistance near the 1.3665 level. Currently, it is trading just below this key resistance.

The UK’s unemployment rate will likely come down from 4.6% to 4.5%. On the other hand, analysts are expecting US retail sales to decline by -0.7%. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the GBP/USD this week. Therefore, if the GBP/USD closes above the resistance near 1.3665, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market. Nonetheless, it would be prudent to wait for the GBP/USD to break above the downtrend line before establishing any long positions.

Hence, CFD traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 1.3665.

Author Asif Imtiaz

Market Analyst / Trading Consultant . Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at