USD/JPY Tests Key Support Once Again Amid Forecast of Declining US Retail Sales

Asif Imtiaz
September 15, 2021

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Australia – Unemployment Rate

On Thursday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the national unemployment rate. It measures the percentage of the total workforce which remained unemployed over the past month.

Binary options investors consider the unemployment rate to be one of the most important fundamental indicators of the Australian economy. It is because one of the main goals of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to keep unemployment as low as possible. Although this is a lagging indicator, analyzing this data can help Forex traders predict future interest rates and inflation situations in the country.

Last month, the unemployment rate in Australia came out at 4.6%. This month, analysts are expecting it to go up to 5.0%.

United States – Retail Sales

On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by CFD traders to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the US retail sales value decreased by -1.1%. Analysts are expecting that this month, it would likely decrease by -0.7%.

USD/JPY Forecast

Since the end of April 2021, the USD/JPY remained mostly range-bound. During the last several months, it mostly traded between around 107.50 and 111.60. However, since June, it failed to close below the support near the 109.20 level. Earlier today, it once again tested the support near 109.20 but failed to remain below it.

The Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity declined by -0.6%. But, analysts are expecting the US retail sales to go down by -0.7%, which has a higher degree of impact on the Forex market. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the USD/JPY this week. Therefore, if the USD/JPY closes below the support near 109.20, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, CFD traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level of around 109.20.

Author Asif Imtiaz

Market Analyst / Trading Consultant . Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes about various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at