2020年第4四半期にオーストラリアのGDP成長率が鈍化した場合、豪ドル/米ドルは弱気になる可能性が高い

アシフ・イムティアズ
2021年3月2日
280 ビュー

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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 2nd March 2021

米国 – 供給管理協会 (ISM) 製造業 PMI

On Monday, at GMT 3:00 p.m., the Institute for Supply Management released its manufacturing PMI figure for the United States. ISM’s US manufacturing PMI measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 400 purchasing managers.

Purchasing managers in the United States are involved in the supply side of the economy. As most companies reduce their expenses and production based on their sales forecast, the survey of purchasing managers reveals the overall optimism of various companies in the country. Hence, Top Forex brokers in Australia can easily figure out the sentiment regarding the economic condition in the country from the ISM manufacturing PMI readings.

Last month, the ISM manufacturing PMI for the United States came out at 58.7. The forecast for this month was set at 58.7 as well. However, the actual figure came out much better than expected, at 60.8.

Australia – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter GDP. It measures the changes in the inflation-adjusted value of all products and service made in the country over the past quarter.

The GDP measures the overall productivity in the economy. It acts as a leading indicator of the economic growth in the country. Hence, CFD traders consider Australia’s GDP (q/q) to be an important indicator of the health of the economy.

Last quarter, Australian GDP came out at 3.3% growth, This quarter, analysts are expecting it to grow by 2.5%.

豪ドル/米ドルの予測

AUD/USD 1 Day Chart - 2nd March 2021

Since the start of November 2020, the AUD/USD remained bullish. Over the last several months, it formed a well-respected uptrend line. Last week, the 10-year US bonds hit a new high near 1.5%. Consequently, the AUD/USD turned bearish. On Friday, it tested the uptrend line around the pivot zone near 0.7700. Currently, it is trading just above this major pivot zone.

Australian quarterly GDP would likely grow at a much slower pace compared to the last quarter. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States increased to 60.8. We believe it would set a 弱気な fundamental outlook for the AUDUSD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes 下にサポート near 0.7700, it would likely attract additional 弱気な 市場の勢い。

したがって、CFDトレーダーは取引機会に注意する必要があります 下に この専攻 サポート level around 0.7700.

著者 アシフ・イムティアズ

マーケットアナリスト/トレーディングコンサルタント。アシフはプロップトレーダーとして約 10 年間働き、その後、ヨーロッパ最大の外国為替戦略開発会社の 1 つでトレーディング業務を管理しました。現在、彼は複数のブローカーの取引コンサルタントとして働いており、さまざまなテクノロジーや金融のトピックについて執筆しています。 contact@asifimtiaz.com までご連絡ください。