カナダの小売売上高の伸び率が0.5%に低下した場合、豪ドル/カナダドルの弱気相場は一時停止しなければならない可能性がある

アシフ・イムティアズ
2021年5月12日
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AUD/CAD Forecast – 13th May 2021

Australia – MI Inflation Gauge

On Thursday, at GMT 1:00 a.m., the Melbourne Institute released the month-over-month MI Inflation Gauge data. It measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Australia. 

The MI Inflation Gauge provides a monthly look at consumer inflation. Also, it is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released CPI data. The MI Inflation Gauge can act as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. As the Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates to reduce inflation, brokers in Australia consider this data to be important for future economic forecasts in the country. 

Last month, the MI Inflation Gauge came out at 3.2%. If the positive trend continues, it will likely have a bullish effect on the Australian Dollar.

Canada – Core Retail Sales

On Friday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., Statistics Canada released the month-over-month core retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of products and services in the retail segment. Automobile prices tend to be volatile. The core retail sales figure excludes it and offers a better gauge of the retail sales.

The core retail sales data are considered by Forex traders as the primary gauge of consumer spending. It accounts for the bulk of the overall economic activities in the country. Therefore, it is a vital leading indicator of the economy as well.

Last month, the Canadian core retail sales increased by 8.4%. This month, analysts are expecting it to increase by 0.5%.

AUD/CAD Forecast

AUD/CAD Chart - 13th May 2021

The AUD/CAD remained bearish since the end of February 2021. Over the last few months, it fell by around 600 pips, from 0.9993. Currently, it is trading near the support around 0.9400 level. If the pair fails to close below this support, it will likely prompt a retracement move from here.

Australian MI Inflation Expectations remained optimistic last month and the trend will likely continue. By contrast, the Canadian core retail sales might reverse course and fall from 8.4% to 0.5%. We believe it would set a 強気な fundamental outlook for the AUD/CAD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/CAD closes その上 サポート near 0.9400, it would likely attract additional 強気な 市場の勢い。

したがって、CFDトレーダーは取引機会に注意する必要があります その上 この専攻 サポート level around 0.9400.

著者 アシフ・イムティアズ

マーケットアナリスト/トレーディングコンサルタント。アシフはプロップトレーダーとして約 10 年間働き、その後、ヨーロッパ最大の外国為替戦略開発会社の 1 つでトレーディング業務を管理しました。現在、彼は複数のブローカーの取引コンサルタントとして働いており、さまざまなテクノロジーや金融のトピックについて執筆しています。 contact@asifimtiaz.com までご連絡ください。