オーストラリアの住宅市場急成長の中、ポンド/豪ドルは弱気の兆し

アシフ・イムティアズ
2021年3月17日
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GBP/AUD Forecast – 18th March 2021

Australia – House Price Index

On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the House Price Index (HPI). It measures the changes in the selling price of houses in the 8 state capitals in Australia.

Rising house prices indicate that investors are confident about purchasing houses. Hence, UK forex investors consider the HPI to be a leading indicator of investor confidence in the country. The HPI is usually released every three months in a quarter-over-quarter format.

Last month, the Australian HPI suggested that house prices in Australia’s 8 state capitals increased by 0.8%. The forecast for this month was that it would increase by 1.9%. However, the actual figure came out much better than expected, at 3.0%.

United Kingdom – Public Sector Net Borrowing

On Friday, at GMT 7:00 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release the public sector borrowing figure. It measures the difference in the value of the spending and income of the public corporations as well as the central government of the UK and other local governments during the last month.

A positive public sector borrowing figure would indicate a budget deficit and a negative figure would indicate a budget surplus. Hence, Forex traders consider a negative figure to be bullish news for the British Pound and vice-versa.

Last month, the UK public sector borrowing figure came out at 8.0 billion. The forecast for this month is set at 20.0 billion.

GBP/AUD Forecast

GBP/AUD Chart (trading view) - 16th March 2021

The GBP/AUD broke above the downtrend line on January 22, 2021. Over the last several weeks, it mostly remained range-bound. During this time, it traded between 1.7750 and 1.8110 levels. Yesterday, the GBP/AUD formed a bearish outside bar with a low of 1.7866. Currently, it is trading just above yesterday’s low.

Australian House Price Index unexpectedly increased by 3.0%. By contrast, analysts are expecting the UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing to increase by 20.0 billion. We believe it would set a 弱気な fundamental outlook for the GBP/AUD this week. Therefore, if the GBP/AUD penetrates 下にサポート near 1.7866, it would likely attract additional 弱気な 市場の勢い。

したがって、CFDトレーダーは取引機会に注意する必要があります 下に this サポート level around 1.7866.

著者 アシフ・イムティアズ

マーケットアナリスト/トレーディングコンサルタント。アシフはプロップトレーダーとして約 10 年間働き、その後、ヨーロッパ最大の外国為替戦略開発会社の 1 つでトレーディング業務を管理しました。現在、彼は複数のブローカーの取引コンサルタントとして働いており、さまざまなテクノロジーや金融のトピックについて執筆しています。 contact@asifimtiaz.com までご連絡ください。