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GBPUSD Outlook: 14th January 2021

GBPUSD got new support on Thursday morning, although confidence in the fundamentals of the UK economy is still noticeably fragile, the vaccine hopes continued to provide important relief about the outlook. The loose policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will provide net support for the Pound Sterling.

According to some reputed online forex brokers, GBPUSD is trading above $ 1.2650, a break above $ 1.3700 could lead to further buying in the near term.

While the upside remains intact now that concerns about negative interest rates have begun to subside, and some of the lusters of Brexit has faded, the EU and the UK still need to agree on “fiscal parity”.

Chart of GBPUSD - 14th January 2021

GBPUSD rose after hopes for vaccines offset fears of the Coronavirus

The UK recorded its worst daily number of deaths, with more than 1,500 deaths recorded for the day, although there was some calm due to the vaccination program with a further slowdown in the rate of new daily infections.

Analysts say the UK is pushing ahead with vaccines, so this may change the narrative of poor economic performance in the UK a little bit, and vaccine developments are expected to provide a respite and relative calm in the UK, while economic uncertainty and political discord are likely to lead to Make the British Pound weak in the coming months.

The housing sector is starting to slow down

RICS home price index fell marginally to + 65% for December from + 66% previously, although above expectations at + 61% and still close to record highs, in contrast, new buyers’ inquiries fell to a seven-month low. Down + 15% from + 26% in the previous month.

This indicates that although the housing market remains open for business in the midst of the recent national shutdown, there is a feeling that the new restrictions will continue to affect transaction activity over the coming period.

Bank of America said that the pound was underperforming during the dollar sell-off from November, and this clearly reflects the risks of Brexit during last-minute negotiations towards the end of 2020.

Market attention has focused more on the comments coming from the Fed, in addition to Biden’s awaited speech later in the day. Fed Vice President Richard Clarida stated that the Bank will not raise interest rates until inflation exceeds 2.0% for a period of at least 12 months. Comments are from market speculation about tightening as US yields decline.

著者 モハメド・アブデルハリク

プロのトレーダー兼アナリスト、2004 年から金融および外国為替市場のエコノミスト。エジプトのアメリカン大学で MBA を取得。モハメッドは、多くの国際外国為替および金融取引会社で経済ライターおよびテクニカルおよびファンダメンタルズアナリストとして、英語とアラビア語の両方で日々働いています。